Third Eye Capital
Tel: (416) 601-2270
Fax: (416) 981-3393
Email Third Eye Capital
Brookfield Place
Bay Wellington Tower
181 Bay Street, Suite 2830
Toronto, Ontario, M5J 2T3
Dear Investor, We want to share with you how we are managing the impact of COVID-19 on our investments and the threats and opportunities we believe lie ahead. We have always built our portfolios to withstand recessionary conditions and weather through volatile storms without suffering catastrophic...
Global asset prices surged in 2019 after the dramatic “stealth QE” operations conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the wholesale funding market (commonly known as the repo market). Since our Q3-2019 Investor Report, the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by over 10% or approximately...
S&P LCD (“LCD”) recently updated in its recovery study database for leveraged loans and corporate bonds, which covers USD$1.1 Trillion in credit defaults over the past thirty-one years. Recoveries are determined by valuing loans at three different points in the recovery process: emergence, settlement, and...
Economists tend to dismiss the role of credit in the economic cycle because of the lack of correlation between GDP growth and growth in the total amount of outstanding credit of the non-financial sector. In October 2009, the IMF forecast that credit growth would remain...
The latest credit outlook survey of the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers (“IACPM”), a global membership of more than 100 banks, insurance companies and asset managers, indicates that recession fears have eased. The IACPM’s index was at a neutral -3.3 in Q1-2019 compared to...
The biggest surprise in 2018 that caught nearly every energy investor and trader off-guard was the steep 30% decline in oil prices at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Not surprisingly, this large pullback has resulted in a surge of bearish calls for a collapse...
September 2018 marked the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when the last credit cycle came to an abrupt and violent end. The rebound in credit markets has been spectacular and gave birth to a new asset class, private debt, that continues to...
The smart money, according to S&P Global, is gearing up for a downturn. The longest credit cycle since 1985 is in extra time and there are many signals, outside of the internal credit market fundamentals that we have revealed in previous letters, which justify high...
“We are having a party at Apollo these days”, Jim Zelter, co-President. Apollo Global Management at 2018 Milken Institute Global Conference. Similar to the end of the 1990s expansion, investors today are juxtaposing a strong global economy with a nearly 10-year-old bull market in risk assets...
IFRS9 was conceived in the wake of the financial crisis to address criticism of the prevailing impairment model that allowed banks and other lenders to delay recognition of losses. The goal of the new accounting standard is for lenders to have more appropriate levels of...
